Risk of Seven-Day Worsening and Death: A New Clinically Derived COVID-19 Score.

This monocentric, retrospective, two-stage observational study aimed to recognize the risk factors for a poor outcome in patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to develop and validate a risk score that identifies subjects at risk of worsening, death, or both. The data of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave of the pandemic were collected and analyzed as a derivation cohort. Variables with predictive properties were used to construct a prognostic score, which was tried out on a validation cohort enrolled during the second wave. The derivation cohort included 494 patients; the median age was 62 and the overall fatality rate was 22.3%. In a multivariable analysis, age, oxygen saturation, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase were independent predictors of death and composed the score. A cutoff value of 3 demonstrated a sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 93.5%, 68.5%, 47.4% and 97.2% for death, and 84.9%, 84.5%, 79.6% and 87.9% for worsening, respectively. The validation cohort included 415 subjects. The score application showed a Se, Sp, PPV and NPV of 93.4%, 61.6%, 29.5% and 98.1% for death, and 81%, 76.3%, 72.1% and 84.1% for worsening, respectively. We propose a new clinical, easy and reliable score to predict the outcome in hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 patients.

Comorbidities, Cardiovascular Therapies, and COVID-19 Mortality: A Nationwide, Italian Observational Study (ItaliCO).

Background: Italy has one of the world's oldest populations, and suffered one the highest death tolls from Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. Older people with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and in particular hypertension, are at higher risk of hospitalization and death for COVID-19. Whether hypertension medications may increase the risk for death in older COVID 19 inpatients at the highest risk for the disease is currently unknown. Methods: Data from 5,625 COVID-19 inpatients were manually extracted from medical charts from 61 hospitals across Italy. From the initial 5,625 patients, 3,179 were included in the study as they were either discharged or deceased at the time of the data analysis. Primary outcome was inpatient death or recovery. Mixed effects logistic regression models were adjusted for sex, age, and number of comorbidities, with a random effect for site. Results: A large proportion of participating inpatients were ≥65 years old (58%), male (68%), non-smokers (93%) with comorbidities (66%). Each additional comorbidity increased the risk of death by 35% [adjOR = 1.35 (1.2, 1.5) p < 0.001]. Use of ACE inhibitors, ARBs, beta-blockers or Ca-antagonists was not associated with significantly increased risk of death. There was a marginal negative association between ARB use and death, and a marginal positive association between diuretic use and death. Conclusions: This Italian nationwide observational study of COVID-19 inpatients, the majority of which ≥65 years old, indicates that there is a linear direct relationship between the number of comorbidities and the risk of death. Among CVDs, hypertension and pre-existing cardiomyopathy were significantly associated with risk of death. The use of hypertension medications reported to be safe in younger cohorts, do not contribute significantly to increased COVID-19 related deaths in an older population that suffered one of the highest death tolls worldwide.

Is Lung Ultrasound Imaging a Worthwhile Procedure for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Pneumonia Detection?

OBJECTIVES: We compared 2 imaging modalities in patients suspected of having coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. Blinded to the results of real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing, lung ultrasound (LUS) examinations and chest computed tomography (CT) were performed, and the specific characteristics of these imaging studies were assessed. METHODS: From March 15, 2020, to April 15, 2020, 63 consecutive patients were enrolled in this prospective pilot study. All patients underwent hematochemical tests, LUS examinations, chest CT, and confirmatory rRT-PCR. The diagnostic performance of LUS and chest CT was calculated with rRT-PCR as a reference. The interobserver agreement of radiologists and ultrasound examiners was calculated. Ultrasound and CT features were compared to assess the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Positive and negative likelihood ratios measured the diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: Nineteen (30%) patients were COVID-19 negative, and 44 (70%) were positive. No differences in demographics and clinical data at presentation were observed among positive and negative patients. Interobserver agreement for CT had a κ value of 0.877, whereas for LUS, it was 0.714. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of chest CT for COVID-19 pneumonia were 93%, 90%, 85%, and 95%, respectively; whereas for LUS, they were 68%, 79%, 88%, and 52%. On receiver operating characteristic curves, area under the curve values were 0.834 (95% confidence interval, 0.711-0.958) and 0.745 (95% confidence interval, 0.606-0.884) for chest CT and LUS. CONCLUSIONS: Lung ultrasound had good reliability compared to chest CT. Therefore, our results indicate that LUS may be used to assess patients suspected of having COVID-19 pneumonia.